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Global economic growth is projected to slow in 2026 as military conflict in the Middle East heightens the risk of disruptions to supplies of oil, gas, and industrial raw materials, thereby driving up inflation and production costs. Against this backdrop, numerous international organizations have downgraded their global economic growth forecasts compared to earlier reports, reflecting the increasingly evident impact of supply-side shocks and persistent uncertainties on the global economic outlook. In its Economic Outlook report released in June 2026, the OECD outlined two growth scenarios contingent on the evolution of the Middle East conflict; under the scenario where energy supply disruptions remain short-lived, global economic growth for 2026 is projected to reach 2.8%.
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